Heating Market Trends and Outlook for 2026

brg_news_room
Jun 8
3 min read

Bathroom & Kitchen Market Reports 2024 Tier 1 & 2 countries

BRG is pleased to announce the recent publication of the 2026 Heating market reports for its tiers 1 countries.

BRG reports provide an in-depth overview of the most recent developments in the Heating markets in several European countries, including market trends, price developments, sales per sector, supply structure, and distribution patterns.

European HVAC Market: 2025 Developments

Across European HVAC markets, 2025 was marked by weak construction activity, policy uncertainty, and a strong reliance on replacement demand (RMI), which became the dominant driver across nearly all countries. New housing installations declined broadly, weighing on volumes for boilers, radiators, and renewable technologies, while non-housing demand showed mixed resilience depending on project pipelines and public investment.

Traditional heating technologies showed divergent trends. Gas boilers demonstrated relative resilience in several markets, particularly where replacement cycles and existing infrastructure remained strong, yet overall volumes were under structural pressure from regulation and decarbonisation policies. In contrast, sales of non-condensing and legacy systems continued their decline across all regions.

Heat pump performance was uneven across markets. While some countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Germany) recorded expansion or recovery supported by policy and electrification trends, others (France, Austria, Poland) experienced contractions due to reduced subsidies, high upfront costs, or demand corrections following previous incentive-driven peaks.

Renewable-linked segments such as solar thermal weakened broadly, pressured by competition from heat pumps and photovoltaic panels, as well as subsidy complexity and reduced construction activity. Radiator demand also trended downward structurally in many markets due to underfloor heating penetration and long replacement cycles.

Cooling was a key growth area in 2025. Room air conditioning expanded significantly across most regions, driven by higher summer temperatures, rising comfort expectations, and increasing first-time installations. Central cooling segments also showed moderate growth, particularly in non-housing applications such as commercial buildings and data centres.

Geographically, Southern European markets (Spain, Italy) benefited from stronger cooling demand, while Central and Eastern Europe saw broader demand weakness amid economic caution. Overall, 2025 highlighted a transitional phase, with markets adjusting to reduced subsidies, shifting energy policies, and the gradual move toward electrification.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, European HVAC markets are expected to experience gradual stabilisation from 2026, with recovery largely driven by renovation activity rather than new construction. Housing RMI is projected to remain the primary demand driver across all product categories, while new housing recovery is expected to be slow and uneven across countries.

A structural shift toward electrification will define the medium-term outlook. Heat pumps, electric water heaters, and hybrid or fully electric systems are expected to gain share across both residential and non-residential segments, supported by tightening EU decarbonisation targets, efficiency regulations, and evolving subsidy frameworks. However, adoption rates will remain sensitive to policy clarity, installer capacity, and affordability constraints.

Country Coverage

The countries included in our latest publication are as follows :

North America
- USA and Canada
Western Europe
- Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and United Kingdom
Eastern Europe
- Czech Republic, Poland and Russia
Middle East
- Saudi Arabia
- UAE
Africa
- Egypt
South Asia
- India