Heating and Cooling Market Trends and Outlook for 2026 - Tier 2 countries

BRG is pleased to announce the recent publication of the 2026 Heating and Cooling market reports for its tiers 2 countries.

BRG reports provide an in-depth overview of the most recent developments in the Heating markets in several European countries, including market trends, price developments, sales per sector, supply structure, and distribution patterns.

Tier 2 European Heating and Cooling Markets: 2025 Developments

Across recently published Tier 2 European countries, 2025 HVAC markets were characterised by a continued shift toward electrification, a weak residential construction environment, and strong reliance on RMI activity. Replacement demand remained the key volume driver in most countries, while new housing installations generally stayed subdued.

The strongest growth driver was the transition toward low-carbon heating technologies. Heat pumps expanded in many markets including Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Croatia, Denmark and Sweden, supported by electrification trends, subsidies and energy-efficiency objectives. However, uptake remained constrained in some countries such as Switzerland, Romania and Slovakia due to affordability concerns, consumer caution and weak housing activity.

Housing RMI was the dominant demand source across virtually all markets, supporting replacement sales of boilers, radiators, water heaters and air-conditioning equipment. Non-residential activity also provided support in sectors such as healthcare, education, data centres, pharmaceuticals and commercial refurbishment. Cooling demand strengthened, driven by rising temperatures, heatwaves, first-time AC installations and growing commercial cooling requirements.

Conversely, solar thermal continued its structural decline across most countries as photovoltaic systems and heat pumps became preferred decarbonisation solutions. New build weakness also negatively affected demand for radiators and traditional heating products.

Tier 2 European HAC Markets: Market Outlook

The outlook is broadly positive, underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, lower interest rates, gradual construction recovery and continued policy support for decarbonisation. Heat pumps are expected to remain the primary structural growth category, supported by incentives, stricter energy regulations and oil-and-gas replacement programmes. Linked water heaters and cooling products are also forecast to grow.

Electrification, energy-efficiency regulation and building renovation programmes are expected to remain the principal long-term drivers through 2030. Meanwhile, fossil fuel boilers, radiators and solar thermal sales are likely to face ongoing pressure, increasingly relying on replacement demand. Growth may be moderated by affordability challenges, installer capacity constraints, retrofit complexity and evolving refrigerant regulations.

Country Coverage

The countries included in our latest publication are as follows :

• North America

  • Mexico

• South America

  • Argentina, Brazil

• Western Europe

  • Croatia, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal

• Eastern Europe

  • Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine

• Africa

  • Algeria, Morocco

• Australasia

  • Australia

• East Asia

  • China

• Southeast Asia

  • Thailand

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To purchase the reports go to our online shop :

BRG Heating Reports 2026

China

Denmark

Brazil

Mexico

Or for more information about our reports and/or offerings please contact us at europe@brgbuildingsolutions.com or +44 20 8832 7860