China’s Urban Housing Demand to Stay 75% Below Peak Amid Demographic Decline
- brg_news_room
- Jul 9
- 1 min read
China: China’s urban housing demand is projected to remain 75% below its 2017 peak in the coming years, driven by a shrinking population and falling property prices, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank estimates that annual urban demand will hover just below 5 million units, a steep drop from the 20-million-unit peak recorded in 2017. Weakening urbanisation trends and growing expectations of price declines are also deterring investment, with analysts warning that housing demand could turn negative as owners look to sell vacant apartments.
Between 2025 and 2030, Goldman Sachs forecasts average annual demographic demand in urban China will fall to 4.1 million housing units, nearly half the average 9.4 million units seen in the 2010s. This gloomy outlook adds pressure to China’s already struggling real estate sector, which is burdened with debt and oversupply. Official data from May showed new-home prices posting their steepest decline in seven months, signaling that the momentum from previous stimulus efforts may be fading, even as officials vow renewed support for the sector.
Source: Bloomberg
