After a Few Challenging Years, the European Ventilation Market is Finally Seeing Light at the End of the Ductwork

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Ventilation manufacturers have faced better times. Following more than a decade of steady growth, demand for ventilation products in Europe peaked in 2022. Since then, sales have declined across most countries and product categories. Among the 23 European markets covered by the BRG Ventilation Programme 2025, only the UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece, France, and Belgium recorded overall growth in 2023 and 2024. This downward trend applies to ventilation systems for both non-residential buildings, such as air handling units and commercial heat recovery ventilation products, and residential buildings, whether new or existing.

A major turning point after 2022 was the sharp drop in new dwelling completions, which fell significantly in 2023 and even more in 2024. Previously, market growth was driven by rising housing completions, improved building insulation and energy efficiency, and the growing adoption of heat pumps and underfloor heating. Heat recovery ventilation combined with low-temperature heating remains an ideal pairing: it improves a building’s energy rating and allows homeowners to install smaller, more cost-effective heat pumps. While homeowners often invest more upfront to reduce long-term energy costs, developers and investors typically focus on maximising short-term returns. This dynamic boosted demand for local heat recovery ventilation products, particularly in new multi-family buildings. These systems offer quicker installation, avoid ductwork and fire regulation complexities, and provide heat recovery benefits at a lower cost. Germany and Italy lead the market for local heat recovery solutions.

The shift toward heat recovery systems has reduced the share of ventilation only products in new buildings. In existing buildings, however, unitary fans, inline duct fans, roof fans, and central extract supply ventilation remain dominant. First-time installations and upgrades in existing homes represent only a small portion of overall volume. Over the past two years, central heat recovery ventilation products have lost ground in renovations, as higher construction costs and tighter budgets make them less appealing; they are often seen as a comfort upgrade rather than a necessity. Local heat recovery ventilation products saw a sharp decline in 2023 compared to 2022, with only a slight rebound in 2024. Central heat recovery ventilation products have also experienced a notable drop over the past three years. Meanwhile, central extract supply ventilation and unitary fans, especially those used in bathrooms, continue to hold their position.

The European air handling unit market continued to decline in 2024, with volumes falling at a slightly faster pace than in 2023. Growth in key markets such as France, Italy, and Spain was not enough to offset sharp declines in Germany, Poland, Sweden, and several smaller countries. While some markets began to recover in 2024, most others are expected to follow in 2025. Investments in new non-residential buildings are projected to accelerate, which should drive higher demand for air handling units next year. Overall, most markets are expected to emerge from the recession, supported by investments in energy-efficient buildings driven by stricter regulations and government incentives.

The recovery in residential ventilation sales is expected to lag behind the non-residential segment. Based on the latest estimates for new dwelling completions, the downward trend should level off in 2025. Significant improvement is anticipated in Poland, Ireland, and Hungary, while most other countries will likely see only a modest decline. This means the overall ventilation market will likely continue to contract, but with an important nuance: demand for heat recovery ventilation products is expected to grow. Despite fewer new housing completions, the increasing share of energy-efficient ventilation systems and the rising adoption of mechanical ventilation in new dwellings should offset some of the decline. Heat recovery products are forecast to begin their turnaround as early as 2025. In contrast, demand for ventilation only products will likely dip slightly in 2025 before returning to growth in 2026. The main driver for ventilation only products, i.e., the renovation, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) segment, is also expected to decline in 2025, with recovery starting in 2026.

Find out more in our latest edition European Ventilation reports.

Source: Arthur Hannert, BRG Research

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