European Ventilation Market On Path to Recovery
European Ventilation Market: Cooling Down, Then Heating Up?
Sales of most ventilation products sold in Europe declined strongly in the past couple of years. This trend has been observed in most of the 21 countries that are covered by BRG’s 2024 European Ventilation Reports. Every year, BRG releases reports on the latest market developments of residential and non-residential ventilation products, such as air handling units, heat pump ventilation, central and local heat/energy recovery ventilation, as well as central extract/supply, positive input ventilation, roof fans, unitary fans, and inline duct fans.
Central Heat/Energy Recovery Products Face Strong Contraction
Demand for central heat/energy recovery products contracted strongly due to a decline in new house completion and a drop in renovation activity. France and Germany are expected to have experienced particularly strong declines in 2024. The negative trend is believed to have persisted for most countries in 2024, often in line with fewer new housing completions. The UK, Spain, and Poland are estimated to have recovered in 2024, while growth is expected to follow in most other countries from 2025 onwards. Overall, the central heat/energy recovery market holds the strongest potential for growth during the next five years. With more new housing completions and an increasing share of heat recovery ventilation in new dwellings, sales are likely to improve. There are several emerging markets, such as Ireland, Slovakia, and Turkey, where sales are likely to grow consistently.
Local Heat/Energy Recovery Products: Germany and Italy Lead the Way
Germany and increasingly Italy are the primary locations for the installation of local heat/energy recovery products. Demand in Germany peaked in 2022, followed by a plunge in 2023 – mainly due to an abrupt stop in demand from the RMI segment, along with wholesalers destocking, triggered by the anticipated construction crisis. Italy peaked in 2023, and sales have likely declined in 2024. Nevertheless, the market is expected to pick up in the short run for those two countries. Poland is likely to see an accelerated growth, which would put the country in the top three in terms of sales volumes by 2028. Apart from these three markets, sales in all other countries are expected to remain below 12,000 units.
Central Extract/Supply Ventilation: A Steady Replacement Market
Sales of central extract/supply ventilation declined less strongly than heat/energy recovery products. This product relies more on replacement demand and is less affected by the strong drop in new housing completions. Demand in France is expected to bottom out in 2025, followed by a steady recovery. The Netherlands, the second largest European market after France in terms of volumes, is expected to see gradual growth from 2025 onwards. For most other countries, central ventilation without heat recovery is unlikely to see any volume growth, due to the growing share of heat recovery products, especially in new dwellings. Central extract/supply ventilation is likely to remain a replacement market with some exceptions.
Air Handling Market: Solid Growth Amidst Declines
Compared to other ventilation products, the air handling market developed well with solid growth seen in Sweden, Spain, and Italy in 2024. Germany, however, had a strong decline, and sales fell after two excellent years. Most countries, including Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy, and Poland, anticipate significant volume increases over the forecast period. Drivers are the ability of air handling units to make use of heat recovery along with the option to condition the air, whether it is to cool it down or heat it up according to a building’s requirements.
The Road to Recovery: Ventilation Market Outlook
Demand for heat/energy recovery ventilation products tends to follow new housing completions. The strong decline in new dwellings has impacted the European market significantly. However, sales of the heat/energy recovery products are expected to improve from 2025 onwards, despite an expected ongoing decline in new housing completions. Demand for heat/energy recovery products is expected to grow, and sales of central/extract supply are likely to decline. This development underlines the anticipated growing share of heat/energy recovery products in new buildings as well as stronger demand from existing buildings due to energy refurbishments and product upgrades to more efficient ventilation solutions.
Source: Arthur Hannert, BRG Research
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