Shifting Momentum for Space Hydronic Heaters in 2025

Heat Pump

In 2025, the markets for gas wall hung boilers and outside air‑water heat pumps moved in noticeably different directions across the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Poland. Gas wall hung boilers declined in every country compared with 2024, continuing a clear downward tendency visible in all five markets.  

In contrast, outside air‑water heat pumps showed a more varied yet overall more positive pattern. While France and Italy experienced a slight downturn, Germany and the United Kingdom saw visible increases. Sales in Poland in 2025 remained relatively flat. This mix of decline on the boiler side and selective growth on the heat pump side positioned 2025 as a year in which traditional heating solutions weakened, while heat pumps showed recovery and, in several key markets, strengthened their position. 

Forecasts Point Toward Strengthening Demand for Heat Pumps 

Looking at projections beyond 2025, the outlook becomes even clearer. Gas wall hung boilers are expected to continue declining steadily across all five markets, with no indication of stabilization or recovery in any country during the forecast period. The German heating market is likely to see negative double digit rates from 2027 onwards.  

Outside air‑water heat pumps, on the other hand, are projected to grow consistently year after year. Even in France and Italy, where 2025 registered slight drops, forecasts point toward renewed expansion. Meanwhile, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland are likely to show particularly strong upward momentum, with forecasts indicating significant increases throughout the coming years. This creates a sharp contrast between a technology facing ongoing decline and another gaining sustained traction. 

Heat Pumps

When the historical developments and future projections are viewed together, the direction of the market becomes unmistakable. Gas wall hung boilers appear set for continued contraction, being negatively driven by the lack of incentives and gradually losing relevance across every one of the five markets. Outside air‑water heat pumps, by contrast, demonstrate strong potential for long‑term expansion, not only reinforcing their position in markets where they already performed well but also recovering in those where they briefly dipped in 2025.  

Sales of hydronic heat pumps in Germany, France, Poland, and Italy are expected to keep rising beyond 2026 because EU‑wide decarbonization measures and national rules increasingly favor clean heating, while fossil‑fuel boilers face growing limits. The EU’s drive toward net‑zero emissions by 2050, supported by policies such as the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive that requires high‑efficiency heating in new and renovated buildings, continues to push heat‑pump adoption. National actions reinforce this shift: Germany requires newly installed heating systems to operate on 65% renewable energy starting from mid-2026 and mid-2028, two deadlines applicable in larger and smaller cities respectively, effectively limiting new fossil‑fuel boilers. France has already banned gas and oil boilers in new buildings since 2023 and the UK is currently focusing on high energy efficiency standards within the new housing segment. Meanwhile, momentum toward a broader European phase‑out continues to weaken demand for gas boilers and strengthen the outlook for hydronic heat pumps as the leading low‑carbon heating technology. This is notwithstanding the EU withdrawing its earlier proposal to ban stand‑alone gas boilers from 2029, as the latest Ecodesign draft removes the planned sales restriction while long‑term decarbonization goals remain in place. 

Find out more in our latest edition of UK HVAC report

Source: Michal Golabek, BRG Research

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