Thailand Set to Become Leading US Air Conditioner Exporter Amid 19% Reciprocal Tariff

Leading US Air Conditioner Exporter

Thailand: Thailand is projected to become the leading exporter of air conditioners to the United States in 2025, surpassing China, following the US imposition of a 19% reciprocal tariff on imports from Thailand. The tariff, along with an additional 50% levy on steel components under Section 232, is expected to boost Thailand’s competitiveness against China, particularly for window-type (self-contained) air conditioners, which account for over 95% of US imports. During the first seven months of 2025, 59% of Thailand’s air conditioner exports were shipped to the US, nearly all being window-type units. Thai products, previously 3%–18% more expensive than Chinese units, are now 13%–23% cheaper even after the tariff, giving Thailand a competitive edge, though Indonesia is emerging as a potential rival with comparable or sometimes lower prices.

Kasikorn Research forecasts that Thailand’s air conditioner exports to the US will grow by 36% year-on-year in 2025, reaching approximately USD 651 million, driven by accelerated shipments prior to the tariff enforcement on 1 August 2025. However, exports are expected to drop by around 70% in the latter part of the year once the tariff takes effect and seasonal factors are considered. Thailand currently holds the largest market share in over 97% of US import categories, with key competitors including China, Mexico, and Indonesia. Chinese manufacturers relocating production to Thailand, combined with the country’s favorable tax structure, are expected to further strengthen Thailand’s position as a major production and export hub for air conditioners destined for the US.

Source: The Nation